12 Signs That The Next Recession Has Already Begun In The US

#1 U.S. retail sales have declined for three months in a row, and that is a very bad sign.  Retail sales in America have fallen three months in a row only 27 times since 1947.  In 25 of those instances, the U.S. economy was either “in a recession or within three months of a recession.

#2 Manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic region has declined for three months in a row.

#3 Overall, the U.S. manufacturing sector contracted last month for the first time in almost three years.  The following is from a recent article in the Los Angeles Times….

A factory index calculated by the Institute for Supply Management slid to 49.7 in June from 53.5 in May to the lowest reading since July 2009. Any level below 50 denotes tightening in the sector; anything above signifies growth.

#4 Sales of previously occupied homes dropped by 5.4 percent during June.

#5 Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 386,000 last week – another sign that the labor market is weakening again.

#6 According to one survey, only 23 percent of all U.S. businesses plan to hire more workers over the next 6 months.

#7 The Philadelphia Fed’s employment index indicates that there is bad news ahead for the labor market….

Labor market conditions at the reporting firms deteriorated this month. The current employment index decreased 10 points, to ‐8.4, its second negative reading in three months. The percent of firms reporting decreases in employment (18 percent) exceeded the percent reporting increases (10 percent).

#8 Unless Congress acts, the U.S. Postal Service is going to financially default for the first time ever on August 1st.

#9 The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators fell by 0.3 percent in June.

#10 A Washington Post survey that was conducted back in April discovered that 76 percent of all Americans believe that the U.S. economy is still in a recession.

#11 According to AARP, 600,000 American homeowners that are 50 years of age or older are currently in foreclosure.

#12 The unemployment rate in New York City is now back up to 10 percent.  That equals the peak unemployment rate in New York City during the last recession.

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